TWC Seminar Special, Speakers Dr. Ari Posner and Dr. Eylon Shamir

Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, CA

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Assessment of MODIS derived inundation extent and Land Surface Temperature for incorporation in regional flash flood guidance system.

 

Presenting: Eylon Shamir (EShamir@hrc-lab.org) & Ari Posner (APosner@hrc-lab.org)

Hydrologic Research Center 

The Hydrologic Research Center (a not-for-profit research corporation, San Diego) is involved in development and implementation of multi-country regional flash flood warning-response systems (There are currently 30 countries worldwide served by these regional systems).  These systems provide hydrological and meteorological agencies the tools to produce timely alerts and warnings for flash floods in small basins.  The systems are based on hourly geo-stationary satellite precipitation products (Hydro Estimator, NESDIS) as input to a land surface model that updates the moisture state of the land.  The output of the model is indices that estimate the amount of rain that is needed over a given small basin in order to cause minor flooding at its outlet.  These indices are compared with local available data and nowcast products by forecasters and enable the generation of prompt flash flood warnings and alerts.

  We will present results from two feasibility studies sponsored by the NASA Natural Disasters Program.  In the first study we assess the usability of the NRT Global MODIS Flood Mapping product to adjust soil moisture estimates in the South East Asia Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS).  Standing water is not unusual in the lowlands of Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand at the second half of the wet season. The current FFGS system does not have a means to detect standing water and thus overestimates the soil water deficit in inundated areas. The NASA inundation maps can be used to adjust the soil water deficit estimates to conform to the field situation of soil saturation during inundation periods.

 The second study assesses the use of MODIS land surface temperature to improve simulation of the snow pack. Lack of data for mountainous regions in mid-latitudes creates large uncertainties for the snow line at the latter part of the snow season when flash floods may be generated from intense rain over bare ground in the mountains. We will present results of a study conducted in South East Turkey where we evaluate the contribution of the MODIS LST to overcome the lack of real time meteorological observations and improve simulation of the snowpack properties.

 

Speaker Bios

Eylon Shamir Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE HE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:Arial; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi; mso-bidi-language:HE;}

  Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Dr. Eylon Shamir joined the Hydrologic Research Center as a Postdoctoral Associate in October 2003 and currently serves as a Hydrologic Engineer III. Eylon obtained his B.Sc. degree in plant sciences from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem in 1994. In 1995 he moved to Tucson, Arizona and obtained his master degree in Soil Water and Environmental Sciences. Following his graduation Dr. Shamir joined the Department of Flood Control Pima County as a hydrologist working on the flash flood warning system.  He went back to the University of Arizona and received his Ph.D. in Hydrology and Water Resources in 2003. His Ph.D. dissertation is concerned with land surface hydrologic models and model parameters estimation schemes that are scale dependent and maintaining the physical characteristics of the basins.  Eylon’s main interests are in hydrologic modeling for flood forecasting and water resources planning and management.  He is also interested in the effect of projected climate variability on the hydrologic cycle and decision making under those uncertain conditions. 

 

Ari Posner Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

Dr. Ari J. Posner joined the Hydrologic Research Center in February of 2013, as a Hydro-Geomorphologic Numerical Modeler. He has worked for federal, state, and local land management agencies, academic research centers, in private consulting, and was a Peace Corps volunteer in Guatemala. Past projects have focused on detection of water quality threats to groundwater resources, water resource inventories, river restoration, river meander modeling, and three-dimensional hydrodynamic models, sediment transport, and morphologic change analyses of severe and damaging river flooding events. In addition, Ari received a US Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency Renewable Energy Fellowship to study at the University College Cork Ireland, Hydraulics and Maritime Research Centre (HMRC). At HMRC, a world leader in wave energy research, he developed numerical models to represent wave energy conversion devices in open water, their interactions and impacts to coastal geomorphology, as well as benefit-cost analyses of wave farm development.

Dr. Posner is particularly interested in improving morphologic change models and incorporating new data sources to predict catastrophic events such as landslides, river bank and levee erosion, and debris and mud flows. He is also interested in predicting morphologic change from increased storm intensity and subsequent flooding, tsunamis, and storm surges, associated with climate change, as it relates to protection of life, property, and national infrastructure,.

Dr. Posner earned a B.S. in Natural Resource Management and a Masters in Land Planning. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Arizona Hydrology and Water Resources Department at the University of Arizona in December 2011.