Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Seminar: Dr. Fuqing Zhang

Pennsylvania State University

A lack of sufficient observations over the tropical oceans and the dynamically inconsistent depiction of tropical cyclones by operational data assimilation systems may be one of the largest factors contributing to inadequate vortex initialization in NWP forecasting efforts. Recently, a WRF based ensemble data assimilation analyses and prediction system has been developed at Penn State that is capable of assimilating both ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for cloud-resolving hurricane initialization and forecasting. Extensive experiments are conducted to evaluate both the hindcast and real-time performances of this analysis and prediction system. Highlights will be given to the findings from the realtime hurricane forecast testbed with this system during the 2008-2011 Atlantic Seasons under the NOAA’s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP).